Lech Lecha : Yesterday does not predict tomorrow
Parshat Lech Lecha 5769
© Rabbi David Lapin, 2008 (http://iawaken.org)
Yesterday does not predict tomorrow
Timeless values rather than transient, political events are the subjects of these essays. But this week’s events in the United States are not transient and they are far more than political. They call for comment.
The US elections are the third event in eight years that permanently changed the course of global history. But there is something even more startling about those events than the changes they ushered in. In all three cases we saw the failure of yesterday to predict tomorrow.
The three events were 1) September 11th; 2) the current financial crisis; and 3) the Obama landslide victory.[1] In each case the instruments traditionally relied upon to predict future trends proved incapable of doing so. In each case the world, including its experts, was taken by surprise and shocked out of complacency.
The United States had a sophisticated intelligence system that was caught unaware in 2001. The world of finance was driven by complex models designed by brilliant minds using cutting edge technology, but it could not foresee the collapse of US credit markets. Even Alan Greenspan told Congress last month that he was in a state of “shocked disbelief.” Barack Obama’s victory was not a surprise (although not very long ago many considered it impossible and even in September McCain’s lead was considered within the margins of polling error), but its landslide dimensions were. None of the polls predicted anything like it.
Yesterday is over
The reason that none of these events were predicted is because the future is no longer a continuation of the past. No longer can one use yesterday’s tools, data and trends to predict tomorrow. Yesterday is over. One needs a deep understanding of today to predict tomorrow. As it Pirkei Avot (Ethics of our Fathers) says: “A wise man is one who is roeh et hanolad - who can visualize that which has just been conceived.” Many of the factors that drove the course of history for decades and maybe centuries drive it no more. New factors have been born that drive it now. Mr. Obama seems to see those factors and uses them.
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